Tajikistan’s policy under Emomali Rahmon is a masterful balancing act on the edge of internal and external instability, which allows the regime to maintain control over the country and reap benefits on the international stage. Research indicates that the State Committee for National Security (GKNB) of Tajikistan supports the terrorist organization ISIS-Khorasan in Afghanistan and recruits its ranks with Tajik citizens, revealing another facet of this strategy. Despite the obvious threat posed by ISIS-Khorasan, which has more than half of its members from Tajikistan, to regional security, such support serves several strategic goals of Rahmon’s regime.
Following the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan in 2021 and the rise of the Islamic Emirate, the situation on Tajikistan’s southern borders has significantly changed. The Taliban’s takeover in Kabul substantially altered the regional power balance, and for Rahmon, it became crucial to demonstrate to both domestic and international audiences his readiness to counter radicalism and resist the Islamic Emirate. Emomali Rahmon has taken a firm stance against the Taliban, viewing them as a significant threat to regional security. The threat from Afghan radical groups, including ISIS-Khorasan, has become a central element of Dushanbe’s foreign policy. However, rather than engaging in a genuine fight against extremism, Rahmon’s regime is believed to be using this threat to achieve its own political objectives.
The geopolitical and strategic motives regarding Afghanistan, which is in close proximity to Tajikistan, represent a complex intertwining of political and ethnic interests. Since the Taliban’s rise to power, border security with Afghanistan has become a key issue for Dushanbe. However, Rahmon’s support for a terrorist organization like ISIS-Khorasan seems paradoxical and contradictory to his official stance on combating extremism. This suggests deeper strategic goals driving the Tajik regime’s actions.
One of the main goals of Rahmon’s support for ISIS-Khorasan is the destabilization of Afghanistan. ISIS-Khorasan is one of the most radical and violent groups, whose activities are directed against the Taliban government. Supporting this organization allows Rahmon to influence Afghanistan’s internal politics by weakening the Taliban’s position and creating chaos that can be leveraged as a tool of influence.
The destabilization of Afghanistan benefits Tajikistan for several reasons. Firstly, chaos on the southern borders allows Dushanbe to remain an important player on the international stage. Covert support for ISIS-Khorasan enables Dushanbe to shape the situation in Afghanistan to its advantage while avoiding direct confrontation with the Taliban.
Secondly, weakening the Taliban by supporting their enemies—ISIS-Khorasan—may enable Dushanbe to become a powerful tool for influencing the internal politics and security of neighboring countries, thus strengthening Tajikistan’s position as a key player in Central Asia.
The support for ISIS-Khorasan by Tajik authorities, according to available information, is part of a broader strategy to undermine the Taliban’s position in Afghanistan. This support allows Rahmon not only to influence internal processes in the neighboring state but also to portray the Taliban as incapable of controlling its own territory, creating grounds for further international isolation of Kabul.
This approach also allows Dushanbe to strengthen its position on the international stage, where Rahmon presents himself as an opponent of the Taliban and a defender of secular values in Central Asia. Despite contradictions with the official rhetoric on combating terrorism, support for ISIS-Khorasan fits into the logic of maintaining instability in Afghanistan, which benefits Tajikistan from a geopolitical perspective.
One of Rahmon’s key methods for maintaining power is creating an artificial threat that justifies repressive measures within the country. Support for ISIS-Khorasan, despite its obvious risks to regional security, helps the regime maintain its image as the nation’s protector. Through controlled media and propaganda channels, Rahmon skillfully amplifies the fear of terrorism, convincing the population that only his strong hand can keep the country from chaos and destruction.
Rahmon’s regime secretly uses ISIS-Khorasan as a means of creating a controlled threat that allows it to consolidate its power domestically. Support for this terrorist organization creates constant tension and fear in society, enabling Rahmon to justify repression and increased state control. A populace in fear of an external threat is less likely to criticize the regime and more willing to accept authoritarian methods of governance.
Moreover, creating the image of ISIS-Khorasan as the primary threat to regional security allows Rahmon to manipulate public opinion, presenting himself as the country’s sole protector. This strengthens his legitimacy in the eyes of both the population and the international community, despite his authoritarian methods of rule.
Instability in Afghanistan plays into the hands of the Tajik authorities. It is used as a pretext for maintaining harsh domestic policies aimed at suppressing opposition and consolidating Rahmon’s power. In the regime’s rhetoric, the fight against terrorism and extremism has always been at the forefront, and any challenge to the existing order in the country is presented as a potential path to an “Afghan scenario” or a repeat of the 1990s civil war in Tajikistan.
On the international stage, support for ISIS-Khorasan may be part of a broader strategy aimed at strengthening ties with global powers such as Russia, China, and even the United States, who are interested in containing the spread of radical Islamist movements. By providing information or taking actions that contribute to containing ISIS-Khorasan, Tajikistan may seek financial and military assistance in return.
These countries, fearing the spread of extremism in Central Asia, are compelled to support the Tajik regime despite its repressive nature and numerous human rights violations. Rahmon, by manipulating the threat of terrorism, skillfully balances between the interests of various global players, extracting maximum benefits to consolidate his power and maintain political stability in the country.
Additionally, cooperation with international organizations and participation in counter-terrorism operations bolster Rahmon’s position as a regional leader capable of influencing the situation in Afghanistan and preventing the spread of radical ideas. This cooperation enhances Rahmon’s status as a significant regional player, enabling him to gain substantial dividends in the form of economic support and political recognition. In a context where the international community is combating global terrorism, Tajikistan can assume a key role in this fight, providing its resources and territory for operations against ISIS-Khorasan.
Sharofiddin Gadoev
September 4, 2024
Amsterdam
